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PayPal Holdings (PYPL) – Insights for This Trading Week

PayPal Holdings (PYPL) is facing increased competition, leading to a downgrade in the stock’s outlook. However, with the company expecting a profitable third quarter, should investors pay attention to PYPL this week? Let’s look at its financial metrics to gauge its prospects…

Leading digital payments company PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) announced robust second-quarter results, with revenues reaching the top of projections. Projections for the third quarter demonstrate an expected increase in non-GAAP EPS growth of 13%-14% to $1.22-$1.24, marking an increase from $1.08 over the same period the previous year.

Moreover, projections for the fiscal year 2023 estimate a non-GAAP EPS growth of about 20%, increasing to approximately $4.95, up from $4.13 for the fiscal year 2022.

In addition to these developments, PYPL is planning a leadership transition, with Alex Chriss slated to assume the role of CEO on September 27. This comes at a particularly turbulent time for the corporation as it faces stiffening competition from tech giant Apple Inc. (AAPL).

Analyst Lisa Ellis from the esteemed equity research firm MoffettNathanson has downgraded PYPL's stock status from Outperform to Market Perform due to this intensifying competition.

Considering these factors, it's recommended to carefully monitor the trends of PYPL’s critical financial indicators to better grasp why it might be prudent to await a more favorable opportunity before investing in the stock.

Fluctuating Trends and Future Predictions for PayPal Holding, Inc.'s Financial Performance (2020-2023)

The trailing-12-month net income PYPL has experienced multiple peaks and valleys, reflecting a fluctuating trend over the observed period from September 2020 to June 2023. Here are some significant developments:

  • In September 2020, the net income stood at $3.14 billion.
  • It recorded a steady uptrend till March 2021, reaching a peak of $5.21 billion.
  • However, a marginal dip was noticed in the subsequent quarter (June 2021), at $4.87 billion.

Towards the end of 2021, the net income once again escalated, hitting $4.93 billion in September but experiencing a fall of around 16% to reach $4.17 billion by December 2021.

In the first half of 2022, PYPL’s net income saw a steep decline, falling to $2.06 billion by June 2022, the lowest point in the entire data series. This represents a near 50% drop from the peak noted in March 2021. After this downward phase:

  • The value showed a slight recovery, reaching $2.42 billion in December 2022.
  • More significantly, an even stronger rebound was observed in the first half of 2023, with the net income rising steadily to reach $4.07 billion by June 2023.

Overall, the period from September 2020 to June 2023 has seen an approximately 30% increase in PYPL’s net income from $3.14 billion to $4.07 billion. Despite the fluctuations, the upward trend indicates positive growth for the company in the long run.

The trailing-12-month revenue of PYPL has shown a consistent upward trend from September 2020 to June 2023, based on the provided data. Here is the summarized trend and fluctuations:

  • On September 30, 2020, the revenue was $20.30 billion.
  • A slight increase was noticed by December 31, 2020, with the revenue rising to $21.45 billion.
  • Throughout 2021, the revenue consistently increased quarterly, ending at $25.37 billion on December 31.
  • This positive trend continued throughout 2022, with revenue increasing each quarter, reaching $27.52 billion by the end of December.
  • The first half of 2023 has also seen positive growth, with revenue increasing to $28.56 billion by June 30.

Using the provided data, the growth rate from September 2020 ($20.30 billion) to June 2023 ($28.56 billion) can be calculated to be approximately 40.69%. Looking more closely into recent data:

In the last quarter of 2022, the revenue experienced a growth of about 1.72% from September ($27.05 billion) to December ($27.52 billion).

In the first half of 2023, the growth pace slightly accelerated, with an increase of 4.70% from December 2022 ($27.52 billion) to June 2023 ($28.56 billion).

Overall, PYPL has demonstrated a robust and steady trend of growth over the reported period.

The asset turnover of PYPL has shown fluctuation in the past years but with a general trend showing steady growth. The values experienced slight dips and rises but increased from 0.35 in September 2020 to 0.37 in June 2023. Here are key points:

  • On September 30, 2020, the asset turnover of PYPL was recorded as 0.35.
  • Throughout 2021, there were minimal fluctuations in the values ranging from 0.34 to 0.34.
  • The asset turnover slightly increased to 0.35 by the end of 2022.
  • In 2023, there was notable growth registered, with the value reaching 0.37 by June.

By measuring the first value from the last value, it can be seen that the growth rate is approximately 5.71% over the three-year period. The latest available data, which is from June 2023, indicates the asset turnover of PYPL to be 0.37, signifying an overall growth trend. This growth suggests that PYPL is becoming more efficient in generating revenue from its assets.

The analyst price target for PYPL has shown significant fluctuations over the given period from November 12, 2021, to September 19, 2023. Overview:

  • Initial Value (November 12, 2021): $315
  • Final Value (September 19, 2023): $88
  • Growth Rate: -72.06%

Trends and Fluctuations: 

  • The value steadily decreased from $315 in November 2021 to $190 by February 4, 2022, and remained consistent at this value until April 1, 2022.
  • On April 8, 2022, there was a slight decrease to $189, followed by a more substantial drop to $184 a week later.
  • From May 6, 2022, there was a sudden sharp decline from $177.5 to $133.3, eventually settling at $125 for a period.
  • From July 29, 2022, onwards, there was another considerable drop from $125 to a new low of $115.
  • The target price experienced minor oscillations throughout August and into late October, staying within the range of $116.8-$124 before dropping further in November to $110.
  • The price again underwent minor oscillations, staying within the range of $108-$110 for a time.
  • After February 17, 2023, the target price saw a very gradual decline over the following months, finally landing at $102 by April 14, 2023.
  • It remained around $100-$102 until June 16, 2023, when it began another gradual descent that continued until the end of the data series.
  • By September 19, 2023, the final recorded analyst price target for PYPL stands at $88, marking a significant decrease of 72.06% from the first recorded value in November 2021.

Most recent data indicates a downward trend for PYPL's analyst price target, calling for careful observation in the forthcoming period.

Analyzing PayPal's Stock Performance: A Half-Year Trend Report from March to September 2023

The data represents the share price of PYPL from March 24, 2023, to September 18, 2023. Main Trends:

  • March to April 2023: PYPL experienced a slightly upward trend, with the share price growing from $72.99 on March 24 to $74.86 by April 14.
  • April to May 2023: There was a significant drop from $75.33 on April 21 to $66.43 on May 12.
  • May to June 2023: The stock price shows a steady rise from $61.33 on May 19 to $67.86 by June 23.
  • June to July 2023: The price fell slightly to $66.39 on June 30, then it went up to $73.65 by July 21.
  • July to August 2023: There was a notable decrease in the share price from $73.43 on July 28 to $60.14 by August 18.
  • August to September 2023: From the end of August to mid-September, the shares saw a minor increase in value, ending at $62.94 on September 18.

During this period, the growth rate of PYPL’s share price varied. From late March to mid-April, prices have slightly increased at a steady but slow growth rate. The most significant decline occurred from late April to mid-May, followed by a period of recovery until late June.

In July, the price peaked and then declined sharply throughout August. In early September, there was a slight upward trend. It is important to note that the overall six-month trend from March to September is characterized by peaks and troughs, suggesting a somewhat volatile trading period for PYPL.

Also, the aforementioned trends point to an inconsistent growth rate for PYPL within this period. Here is a chart of PYPL's price over the past 180 days.

Analyzing PayPal's Growth, Momentum, and Sentiment Ratings: March to September 2023

Based on the provided data, an analysis of the POWR Ratings grade of PYPL within the Consumer Financial Services category of stocks is as follows:

  • The POWR grade began at a C (Neutral) level in the week of March 25, 2023, with a rank of #22 out of 50 stocks within its category.
  • It maintained a consistent POWR grade C (Neutral) through late April 2023 while experiencing minor fluctuation in its ranking within the category, hovering around the mid-twenty ranks.
  • The POWR grade notably improved to a B (Buy) in the week of May 13, 2023, accompanying a significant jump in the category rank to #6.
  • This B (Buy) grade and relative ranking around #10 were upheld through most of May, June, and July 2023.
  • However, by early August 2023, PYPL's POWR grade slipped back to C (Neutral), with a corresponding rank falling to #18.
  • This C (Neutral) grade continued through to mid-September 2023 with no significant improvements or reductions in rank.
  • The latest available data, as of September 19, 2023, indicated that PYPL holds a POWR grade of C (Neutral), with a rank in its category being #20 out of 50.

In considering the POWR Ratings for PYPL, three dimensions have emerged as particularly noteworthy: Growth, Momentum, and Sentiment. 

Growth: PYPL's Growth rating experienced a significant increase from March to July 2023. It started with a high score of 79 in March 2023, then remained consistent until it surged to 88 by May 2023, and peaked at 94 in June and July of 2023. However, there was a decrease afterward, reaching 63 in August 2023 and further dropping to 53 by September 16, 2023. 

Momentum: The Momentum dimension for PYPL showed a clear upward trend from March 2023 to July 2023. Starting at a low point of 21 in March, the Momentum showed steady improvement, reaching 71 in July. From this point, however, the Momentum stagnated, recording 63 in August and a slight increase to 65 by September 16, 2023. 

Sentiment: PYPL’s Sentiment rating began at 67 in March 2023, following which, it reached a high value of 78 by April 2023. It then decreased to 54 in June 2023 and maintained this score in July 2023. Subsequently, a marginal increase in Sentiment took place going into August, with a score of 55. It then saw a notable jump, valued at 71, by mid-September 2023.

These trends offer insights into the performance aspects of PYPL, with the Growth and Momentum ratings showing significant improvements throughout the period. However, these gains have been offset by decreasing Sentiment toward the company over the same period.

How does PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL) Stack Up Against its Peers?

Other stocks in the Consumer Financial Services sector that may be worth considering are Regional Management Corp. (RM), EZCORP Inc. (EZPW), and Visa Inc. (V) - they have better POWR Ratings. Click here to explore other stocks in the Consumer Financial Services sector.

What To Do Next?

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PYPL shares were trading at $61.79 per share on Tuesday afternoon, down $1.15 (-1.83%). Year-to-date, PYPL has declined -13.24%, versus a 16.02% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index during the same period.

About the Author: Anushka Dutta

Anushka is an analyst whose interest in understanding the impact of broader economic changes on financial markets motivated her to pursue a career in investment research.


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