The media are hammering home a message: many of the ultra-conservative candidates who won their nominations with Donald Trump’s backing are in deep trouble.

With less than six weeks to go in the midterms, we hear and see versions of that consensus virtually every day. It is the frame through which they are covering the election, especially the razor-thin battle for control of the Senate, that happens to favor the Democrats hanging on.

In some cases, this might be on target. But overall, what if it’s flat wrong?

After all, it was New York Times analyst Nate Cohn who said the polling (which all of this hinges on) may be wrong. It was wrong in 2016 and 2020, overestimating Democratic support in the same areas, and nothing has been done to fix it.

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There are big wild cards this year. Will the election be a referendum on Trump or Joe Biden, whose low-key approach keeps him out of the news except when he’s attacking MAGA Republicans?

And how energizing will the abortion rights issue be in turning out Democratic voters?

Keep in mind that candidates playing to their base in the primary and inching toward the center in the general is as old as American politics. First you’ve got to win the nomination to have a chance. That’s why Blake Masters, in the Arizona Senate race, quickly scrubbed his website of anti-abortion and personhood amendment rhetoric, along with 2020-election-was-stolen language. 

The Washington Post makes the case that "candidate popularity presents a significant and unnecessary hurdle in what should, historically speaking, be a good election for Republicans." (The paper doesn’t rule out GOP victories, though.)

After reviewing polls in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the Post said that "in most cases, the Trump-aligned candidates that observers have pegged as being potential liabilities in those states look like exactly that."

In the Pennsylvania Senate race, one poll showed 29% like Dr. Oz while 53% dislike him. Another poll showed 36% of Trump voters dislike him. But Democrat John Fetterman has only "middling approval numbers," though more than a 20-point edge over Oz on net favorability. The race remains competitive, especially given the stroke factor.

In Ohio, polls show Democrat Tim Ryan with a "net image rating" 12 to 20 points higher than J.D. Vance. Yet the story admits the race is "neck and neck," which sort of undercuts the premise.

In the Michigan governor’s race, GOP challenger Tudor Dixon is at 24 favorable/44 unfavorable in one recent poll. Gretchen Whitmer’s numbers on that score are 28 points higher. I don’t think Dixon helped herself by joking about the plot to kidnap the Democratic governor, which has led to convictions.

And in New Hampshire, Sen. Maggie Hassan was thought to be in deep trouble, but while GOP challenger Don Bolduc is negative 17 points on fav/unfav, Hassan is negative 9. Bolduc had been an election denier, but retracted that view after winning the nomination. 

"I’ve spent the past couple weeks talking to Granite Staters all over the state from every party, and I have come to the conclusion — and I want to be definitive on this — the election was not stolen," Bolduc told Fox News in a clear 180.

But sometimes the challengers sputter. The New York Times reports that Doug Mastriano, Pennsylvania’s GOP gubernatorial nominee who chartered buses to the Jan. 6 rally and has vowed to ban abortions without exceptions – is having a rough time. 

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At a weekend rally he appeared "before a crowd of just a few dozen — about half of whom were volunteers for his ragtag campaign for governor of Pennsylvania…

"He is being heavily outspent by his Democratic rival, has had no television ads on the air since May, has chosen not to interact with the state’s news media in ways that would push his agenda, and trails by double digits in reputable public polling and most private surveys."

The paper’s conclusion: "It is one thing to win a crowded GOP primary on the back of online fame and Donald J. Trump’s endorsement, it is quite another to prevail in a general election in a battleground state of nearly 13 million people."

Thus, we see the message again and again: These Trump-backed people are just too extreme to win this fall – although the polls, as I said, may be wrong. Plus, NBC reports that in a 2019 radio interview, state Sen. Mastriano was pushing a ban on abortion after six weeks, and said any woman who violated that law should be charged with murder.

At the same time, personality matters. In Georgia, Herschel Walker has been battered by admissions and allegations, including from his ex-wife, that would sink most candidates. Yet he remains tied in the race against Sen. Raphael Warnock.

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And sometimes the candidates suffer self-inflicted wounds. Kari Lake, the Trump-backed nominee for Arizona governor, made a huge deal of a video attacking Democrat Katie Hobbs:

"In Hobbs's Arizona, your kindergartner wouldn't learn the Pledge of Allegiance. As a legislator, Hobbs actually voted to block the Pledge of Allegiance, our national anthem, our Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, and even the Mayflower Compact from being taught to the next generation of Americans right here in Arizona."

Except even Republicans say the bill that Hobbs voted for would do no such thing – it added a Latin phrase meaning "God enriches" – prompting counterattacks that she doesn’t know how to read a bill. Lake has refused to admit her mistake.

And yet, in two recent polls, Lake trails by a single point – a statistical tie.