Panic with Friends – Investing for Profit and Joy
Good morning everyone.
When I taped today’s Panic podcast last week I had a sense a panic was at hand. Last night Russia invaded Ukraine and so the panic should rapidly unfold in the days and weeks ahead.
We are experiencing the first panic since March 2020 when I started the podcast. We kept our cool back then, and I want to do the same this time. Tech stocks have been the weakest sector heading into tomorrows ‘war’ panic so the drops may continue to accelerate. This special episode is a bit of a follow-up to the interview I did recently on the Odd Lots podcast with Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway. And it answers some recent questions from our listeners.
You can listen to the podcast HERE ON SPOTIFY or APPLE PODCAST and now all the episodes are on my YouTube channel as well.
You can also listen right here on the blog:
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What are they Panicked About?:
Howard’s panicked about the current panic and Knut’s panicked about traveling to Europe.
The Takeaway:
What can we learn from the great roundtrip? Are the markets as connected as I thought? What excites me moving forward? To begin, the ‘Great Roundtrip’ is something I noticed in the chart patterns of ‘COVID tailwind leaders’. The poster child for this is ARK’s Cathie Wood. They loved her in the media in January of 2021, and today she’s a running meme joke. But, the great roundtrip is most likely another great long term opportunity.
I am focused on e-commerce and the cloud. Certain companies are poised to emerge stronger than ever from this bear market and panic. As for the markets being connected, this is what I spent most of the Odd Lots podcast talking about because I believe they are very connected, even if right now it feels like there’s a slight disconnect between the public and private markets in tech. At the moment, the private markets haven’t corrected as fast as the public markets. The public markets have my attention because we’re really experiencing some kind of trend change over the last five or six months. We don’t know how long that will last, but tech leadership companies are much stronger financially than in 1999. There are great companies with great cash flows that happened to be massively overvalued. Everything is getting re-priced.
Show Notes:
- (00:42) – Intro
- (03:27) – Listener questions
- (04:13) – For any Whoop employees listening
- (04:28) – What is the Great Roundtrip and what can we learn from it?
- (05:46) – Poster child ARK’s Cathie Wood
- (06:29) – The FANG stayed intact for the most part
- (07:26) – We don’t have a full market crash
- (08:22) – Great investors will find the companies that emerge
- (08:51) – Cloudflare, Shopify, and Zoom
- (09:48) – 8 to 80 brands with great margins
- (11:24) – Are the markets as connected as I thought?
- (11:44) – Private markets acting more efficiently than public
- (12:31) – Public market equivalent selloff of 50, 60, 70 percent
- (14:16) – A nasty correction in pricing for private companies
- (15:11) – Eventually these are connected markets
- (15:38) – What excites me moving forward
- (16:00) – Tech outperforms over the long haul
- (16:44) – If energy stays up, high tech will win
- (17:07) – Figuring out how to get rid of carbon
- (17:31) – While everybody chases energy, tech will win the day
- (18:11) – Tech stocks are not 1999
- (21:45) – We need balance, but the show is about trends
- (22:07) – Closing thoughts
