Insider buying is an increasingly valuable tool for investors, especially given uncertain economic conditions and high market volatility. Although their activity is never a guarantee of higher share prices, it can help uncover good investments when combined with other metrics. Today's focus is on large-cap stocks with healthy capital returns, specifically Yum China Holdings (NYSE: YUMC).
Yum China Trades Near Rock Bottom Pricing: Insiders Start Buying
Sluggish sales growth and lackluster analysts' sentiment have weighed on Yum China Holdings for the last year. A downdraft began in 2023 and took the market to historical lows this year, where insiders started to buy. The insider activity is noteworthy because it is the most significant of any large-cap stock, with five insiders, including the CEO, CTO, two general managers, and a director making purchases. The activity is also noteworthy because the Q3 purchases are the first insider transactions since 2023 and alter the trend. Until now, insiders have primarily sold the stock as it has ratcheted higher.
The institutional activity of this restaurant stock is bullish. Institutions own a significant 85% of the stock and have bought on balance for three consecutive quarters and for three of the last five, with activity strong and steady in 2024. This provides a base of support from which the market may rebound, and there are reasons to expect one.
The analysts aided the downdraft in share prices with a steady string of price target reductions, but the market has front-run the trend, which is changing in H2 2024. The most recent revision is an upgrade to Outperform with a price target of $37.40. As it is, the group rates the stock as a Moderate Buy and sees it advancing by 7% at the low end of the target range and by 45% at the consensus.
Yum China Holdings Capital Return Is a Value Play
Yum China Holdings has an ample capital return that is safe and growing. The dividend is worth $0.64 annualized in 2024 and about 1.85% in yield, with shares near historical lows. The payout ratio is an ultra-low 27.5%, which can sustain the mid-single-digit CAGR indefinitely because of the earnings growth.
Details from the Q2 results include quarterly records for store count openings, revenue, margin, and earnings and an expectation for strengths to continue. Although comps are sluggish, with ticket average down and traffic up, store growth is running near 10% and offsets it. Store count growth also sets the company up with leverage for when economic headwinds ease and consumer spending habits shift.
Yum China’s share repurchases were robust in the first half of the year and reduced the average count for Q2 by 7.3%. The pace of buybacks may slow in the second half because more than half the guidance is used, but the company is on track to hit its $1.5 billion target and is likely taking advantage of the price dip in Q3. Share repurchases should continue at a similarly aggressive pace in F2025.
Yum China Holdings Insiders Signal a Bottom
Yum China shares are trading near rock bottom. Not only does the 16x valuation and 1.8% dividend align with industry peers, but it is trading near historical lows, showing signs of support at the IPO levels and unlikely to fall further. However, the stock price may struggle over the next few quarters and trend sideways within a range. The critical support target is near the $30 and may be retested more than once before a price reversal occurs. The risk is that YUMC shares will fall below $30 and return to the historic low near $25.
