It’s been years in the making, but WD-40 Company (NASDAQ: WDFC) is on the brink of reversal. The stock got the expected boost from pandemic spending and stimulus dollars but then struggled in the wake of the bubble. The company is firing on all cylinders with supply chains normalizing, cost structures back in line, and demand resilient. That means growth, margin expansion, above-consensus performance, and continuing capital returns.
Among the many details in the Q3 report is a new share repurchase program to replace the expiring 1. The new program is worth $50 million to shareholders or about 1.9% of the pre-release market cap. That is offset by share-based compensation, which topped $5.75 million during Q3 but is still a powerful tailwind for the market.
WD-40 Company Outpaces Consensus, Reiterates Guidance
WD-40 Company had a solid quarter and is expected to continue performing at a high level this year. The company produced $141.72 million in net sales, a gain of 14.6% compared to last year. That is 220 bps better than expected and up 2% YTD, driven primarily by pricing increases. The company has enacted several rounds of pricing increases over the past 12 months that are more than offsetting slight declines in volume.
The volume news is mixed, with declines in some regions offset by increases in others. Where there are volume increases, they are often driven by front-running to avoid planned increases this quarter or later this year. China is a standout and up 151% due to economic reopening. Regardless, revenue and margin remain strong, and growth is in the forecast.
The margin news is favorable and a primary driver of the stock price action. The company widened the gross margin by 390 basis points to drive a 30% increase in net income. The net income increased to $18.9 million resulting in $1.38 in GAAP earnings. The GAAP earnings are up 29% YOY and outpaced the Marketbeat.com consensus by 1300 basis points.
The only true negative in the report is the guidance which may be cautious. The company reiterated its outlook for the full year despite the Q3 weakness and cautioned results would likely come in at the low end of the range. Still, the low end of the range is consistent with the analyst's expectations, so it may be enough to lift the stock into reversal.
The WD-40 Dividend Is Growing
The WD-40 dividend isn’t a high yield, but it outmatches the average S&P 500 company by 30 bps and comes with an element of safety. The company is paying about 70% of earnings at the low end of the guidance range, but the cash flow is solid, and the balance sheet is sound.
The company carries some debt, but assets are up, and total liabilities are down compared to last year, with a leverage ratio near 1X equity. The company may slow the pace of increases to mid or low single digits in the coming years, but there is little fear of a cut or suspension.
The analyst sentiment is mixed for WDFC, but don’t read too much into it. The 2 analysts with ratings on Marketbeat’s screener see the stock as overvalued. Still, the most recent, several months old, has a price target of $228, about 20% above the current action. Institutions are more bullish on the name; they own nearly 95% of the stock and have been buying on balance in recent quarters.
The Technical Outlook: WDFC Is On The Brink Of Reversal
WDFC stock has been bottoming for the last year and may now complete its reversal. The market is up more than 5% following the Q3 release, tickling a critical resistance point. If the market can get above the baseline of the pattern near $205, a more-sustained rally may form.
