KBRA releases the April 2022 issue of CMBS Trend Watch.

This month’s Spotlight features a review of Americans on the Move in 2021. State migration can play a key role in commercial real estate as it can influence tenant and housing demand. While its ultimate impact on property performance can be hard to quantify, prolonged periods of net state inbound or outbound migration can trickle down to local economies and could significantly affect property fundamentals.

Key Takeaways

• An estimated 56% of Americans moved in 2021 compared to 35% in 2020.
• The highest out-migration states include New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Connecticut, and California.
• New Jersey was the highest out-migration state for the fourth consecutive year.
• Within a total CMBS and Freddie Mac population of $752.6 billion of unpaid principal balance (UPB), $301 billion (36.5%) was attributable to the top five out-migration states.
• The top five in-migration states accounted for $62.5 billion (7.6%) of the outstanding principal balance.

The publication also provides highlights on new issuance in the sector, as well as surveillance activity.

In April, KBRA published pre-sales for 10 deals ($11.1 billion) including three SB transactions ($5.7 billion), three single-family rental ($2.7 billion), two Freddie Mac K-Series ($2.1 billion), one small balance commercial ($276.8 million), and one commercial real estate collateralized loan obligation ($252.6 million). April’s surveillance activity included rating actions on 458 classes consisting of 432 affirmations, 17 downgrades, and nine upgrades. There were also 39 KBRA Performance Outlook (KPO) changes: six to Outperform from Perform, 21 to Perform from Underperform, and 12 to Underperform from Perform.

Click here to view the report.

About KBRA

KBRA is a full-service credit rating agency registered in the U.S., the EU, and the UK, and is designated to provide structured finance ratings in Canada. KBRA’s ratings can be used by investors for regulatory capital purposes in multiple jurisdictions.

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